Wild Card Outlook

One of the things I don't do well is prognosticate. Give me logical data (financial numbers, demographic figures) I'm fine. Give me sports and I suck wind. For instance, I finish dead last in my bracket pools every year. So, this wild card outlook is, for all intents and purposes, full of shit.

(The picture is William H. Macy from The Cooler, a terrific movie. Great story, great acting, Maria Bello naked...)

In the AMERICAN:

COLORADO (78-60 in the West; leads the WC): Colorado has a scheduling advantage, with a +12 home/road differential. That means that of the 24 games left on their schedule, only six of them are on the road. They host each division rival one last time, as well as one more game with Monterrey, and serieses with Cleveland and Richmond. The two road trips are to Nashville and Richmond. The River Otters have won eight of their last 10. Odds of making the WC: Even.

MILWAUKEE (75-63 in the North; second in the WC): The Malt Liquors are -4 on the home/road differential, but that's not so bad as they are 37-30 when playing on someone else's field. What is bad is the competition left -- division leaders Cleveland (H), KC (A) and Boston (H), plus WC contender Detroit (A). That three-game set with Detroit will be pivotal as there are only four games between the teams for the last wild card spot. Milwaukee has won six of its last 10 and are amid a series with my Memphis squad. Odds: 5-2

SEATTLE (73-65 in the West; 2GB of Milwaukee): Seattle makes the most intriguing late season games. Winners of 7 of their last 8, the Steelheads have two more road games than home games left. This could be very good, as they have a better road record. They are in the middle of a five-game (two-home, three away) set with Pittsburgh. The rest of the road looks tough, though -- home for Detroit, at KC, at Boston, home for Minnesota and Vegas and at Colorado. The schedule isn't easy, but they have a schedule to make the run a reality. Odds: 4-1.

DETROIT (71-67 in the North; 4GB of Milwaukee): Almost a mirror of the Milwaukee schedule -- at Boston, Seattle, Nashville, home for Monterrey, Milwaukee, Richmond, Cleveland and Minnesota. The wild card could very well be decided by the 3/20 AM cycle, when they wrap up back-to-back sets with Seattle and Milwaukee. Odds: 5-1.

MEMPHIS (70-68 in the South; 5GB of Milwaukee): We have no chance. I put us on the list because I can. I have eight more away games than home games and am playing below .500 ball when I'm on the road. This especially warms my soul as I have road dates with Milwaukee, Augusta, Cleveland and Minnesota. We're going no where. Sonsabitches. Odds: 10-1

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In the NATIONAL:

BUFFALO (84-54 in the North; leads the WC): The home-road splits are negated by the fact that they are playing 15 games over .500 at home and on the road. Buffalo could rock the American League. The Wings have series against all four division leaders and two of the four division cellar-dwellers. They end the season against Philadelphia at home. With seven games between them and 24 to play, it wouldn't be unheard of if that series put the division crown in play. Odds: Even.

SANTA FE (79-59 in the North; second in the WC): Santa Fe is the wild card of the wild card. They hold a two-game lead for the last WC spot (Austin and Washington are tied for third), but are only three games back of Atlanta in the South division. Santa Fe has three games at Washington coming up and ends the season with a 10-game homestand against Atlanta and Austin.  It is very likely that Santa Fe will go to the playoffs. But, the question is whether they will go as a division champ or a wild card team. Odds: 2-1.

AUSTIN (77-61in the South; 2GB in the WC)/WASHINGTON (77-61 in the East; 2GB in the WC): Both teams are close. No doubt. But, neither has a favorable schedule, or at least, none have a schedule as favorable as Santa Fe. I reserve the right to change my opinion, but I think this one might be locked up. Odds: 7-2.

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