A Chechako, A Summer Knight and a Booze Hound...Hey Oh! (Part 2)

Season 9 is nearly upon us and there's only one question -- who wins the NL west, Portland or San Francisco? The Oogles are the defending world champions and have the target on their back after cruising to championship (the Oogle Birds lost four playoff games in their run to the title). In the mean time, can Memphis and San Juan post consecutive 100+ win seasons? I could write individual team previews, but who's got time for that?

Let's look at the NL...

NORTH: There's nothing to say when you win a division by 25 games. Chicago ran away with things and then added Louis Fleming and Slash Miles. Milwaukee and Minnesota were both active in the off season, and I respect Cincinnati for standing pat and developing the kids. Only one question...will someone mount a challenge?
CARNAC SAYS: Chicago in a walk.

EAST: Now, here's an interesting division. All quality teams that would run rampant in the AL, but when packed into one division, we get everyone's favorite word -- parity. Philly has a solid core of pitching, but went out and got Guy Freel and Frank Thome, plus slotted Frank Thome at third. Florida brings Kyle Merritt, Hal Riccardi and David Aquino back to the hill. Buffalo adds a pair of free agents in Pete Baker and Denny Katou. Washington has been trading like the world is going to end. Questions: 1) Does Florida have the offense to make a challenge? 2) Does Philadelphia have the pitching to hold Florida off?
CARNAC SAYS: Pick 'em. Push. It's a cop out. Take either Philadelphia or Florida.

South: Because the East and West are so strong, we get another semi-stinker division. KPMcClave took Jacksonville to 99 wins and a 21-game division win. And, just to keep it interesting, he went out and dropped $70+ million in free agency. Houston, Santa Fe, New Orleans? They'd probably kick my team's ass, but instead they'll spend the year watching Jacksonville's. Question: Did KP budget himself into a corner if something goes wrong?
CARNAC SAYS: Jacksonville.

West: And then there is the toughest division in Wailing Onion. Why? Fresno was 40 games out last year with 74 wins. Los Angeles was 35 back with 79 wins. Either one would have made wild card challenges in the AL. Sandleaguer and cheez have the misfortune of battling it out between Portland and San Francisco. Question: Does it matter who actually wins this division?
CARNAC: San Francisco wins it, Portland gets the wild card.

A Chechako, A Summer Knight and a Booze Hound...Hey Oh!

Season 9 is nearly upon us and there's only one question -- who wins the NL west, Portland or San Francisco? The Oogles are the defending world champions and have the target on their back after cruising to championship (the Oogle Birds lost four playoff games in their run to the title). In the mean time, can Memphis and San Juan post consecutive 100+ win seasons? I could write individual team previews, but who's got time for that?

Let's start our division previews in the AL...

NORTH: Quick math here. The East division has budgeted $372 million on payroll this season. Boise imported Aaron Camilli to play left and shored up its bullpen with the signing of Shayne Swift. Chicago reloaded the chamber, locking up Stewart Toombs, Garrett Collins and Earle Edmonds. On the opposite end, New Britain supplemented its homegrown talent with some older, familiar names--Vern Dunwoody, Dorian Piper, Sammy Williams. Questions for this season: 1) Can New Britain's Steve Hollins keep it up after his very quiet .313-32-115 season? 2) What kind of difference will Lewis Harang make for Rochester? 3) Is there enough fire power in Boise to make it happen in a hitter-friendly park? 4) Will this be the year for Chicago?
CARNAC SAYS: Boise

EAST: San Juan hit .299 as a team last year. Six regulars topped .300, led by Warren Hamill's .350 average and 1.050 OPS. The rotation took a hit, though, when Germany Smart skipped town. Naturally, ownership made up for it by signing offensive powerhouse Sammy Carr. New York was spared a loss with Jimmie Walters resigning, anchoring a tough rotation. Boston returns a pair of 15-game winners in Lawrence Johnson and Horacio Baez. Norfolk went out and signed one of the big free agents this season, locking up Donovan Leiter. Questions: 1) What's San Juan got up its sleeve? 2) Does Boston even count as a real city? 3) Can New York pull it together and give the Reales a run?
CARNAC SAYS: San Juan by a whisker. New York gets a wild card.

SOUTH: Memphis posted 103 wins. They lost Tanner Howard, but added Tony Tanaka to join Tomas Julio and Tom Green. Texas lost its two late-season pickups in Benny Aybar and Donovan Leiter, but the club had its best season in years (literally) and is trending upwards. San Antonio took a step back in season eight. Is this the sign of a decline? St. Louis had some fine individual performances last season but they couldn't put it together.
Questions: 1) Floyd Brock won the Cy Young award, but what's left in the tank? 2) Are Midre Navarre and Rudy Fingers enough to make up for losing Leiter and Benny Aybar in Texas? 3) Was season eight a blip on the San Antonio/Little Rock radar?
CARNAC SAYS: Memphis

WEST: Traditionally one of the toughest divisions, only 13 games separated first and fourth place. And, none of these guys wasted time getting better. Arizona returns Vic Brock, Doug Pride and Duke Harper off of career seasons. KC brings back a scary core with Odalis Cervantes, Erubiel Blanco, Brent Scutaro and Albert McPherson. Questions: 1) Will Vancouver and Seattle make the run to close the gap between KC and Arizona?
CARNAC SAYS: Pick 'em. Either KC or Arizona with the other team taking the wild card.

NL comes tomorrow or the next day.

World Series Preview: Positional Analysis

Don't let me fool you. I did this tonight not out of a sense of duty but as an effort to distract myself from Syracuse University nearly blowing their basketball game against the University of South Florida. And don't get me started on the Sugar Bowl...damn Saban.

Anyhow, the Onion Ball staff put their thinking caps on and came up with a position by position breakdown of the both World Series teams:

CATCHER
Portland's Guy Olson was one of three Portland players to hit .300+ with more than 35 homers. Rookie Grant Gilbert is an up and comer with offensive potential and excellent pitch calling numbers. Boston's Luke Cox hit .305 in the regular season but has lower defensive numbers than his counterparts. EDGE: Portland

FIRST BASE
Portland's Al Mendoza is an an all-world, Hall of Fame player to crushed opponent pitching in his first National League season. Guillermo Rivera hit 22 homers in 83 games for Boston, mustering a .944 OPS. EDGE: Portland. Rivera is competent. Mendoza is the gold standard.

SECOND BASE
In an interesting management maneuver, the Beavers debuted rookie Wendell Clement in the playoffs. And, since rebedwell has made every right decision this season, it turned out well. with Clement hitting .385-3-5 in 26 playoff at-bats. Boston's Howard Lee made the most of his rookie season, hitting .281-34-100 with a .910 OPS. He was equally as impressive in the field, committing just two errors. EDGE: Boston. Age and experience beats youth and ambition.

THIRD BASE
Portland's hottest hand is Philip Thompson, who has 22 hits, nine homers and 16 RBI in 51 playoff at-bats. Translation: 1.442 OPS. Nice! Equally as hot is Greg Lankford. The Sox's leading hitter on the year, Lankford batted .339 with a .968 OPS during the regular season. The trend continued in the post-season -- .392-4-13 with a 1.269. EDGE: Push.

SHORTSTOP
Neither team places offensive emphasis on their shortstops. Boston goes with Bud Rollison and a .294 batting average in 398 at-bats. Portland's Carl McMurray hit .236 in 318 at-bats. EDGE: Push. Rollison's offense is offset by his 22 errors. McMurray's offense is washed out by his two errors.

OUTFIELD
Boston's Hector Pettite hit .329 and reached base at a .399 clip. His outfield mates Tony Trevino and Howie Durham were .250 hitters with less than spectacular extra-base hit numbers. Portland's Darren Thomas had an all-star season -- 302-40-86 with 23 steals. His colleagues in the outfield -- Ken Webster and Josias Veras -- each hit 20+ homers. Webster struck out 140 times. EDGE: Portland, by a hair, because chicks dig the long ball.

DESIGNATED HITTER
EDGE: Boston, as you would expect. It's easier to have a good DH when you plan for it in your everyday lineup. When in use, Jamie Yamamoto will do it for Boston. My guess is that catchers Olson and Gilbert plus Al Mendoza will fill the role here.

STARTING THREE
Boston: Willie Trajano-Groucho Hunter-Raymond Stone
Portland: Octavio Martin-Julian Santana-Preston Mays.

I have a sneaking suspicion that rebedwell is going to drop Larry Dickens (0-0, 4.50 in postseason) for Preston Mays (2-0, 0.00 ERA, 19 Ks in postseason). EDGE: Call me crazy. If he does that, Portland has the best staff. If he keeps Dickens, call it a push.

BULLPEN
Portland's Felipe Balboa has converted all six of his post-season save opportunities, but has a 4.63 ERA in the process. Danny Duran leads the Boston 'pen with a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. EDGE: Push. Both relief staffs are sharp.

THE BLOG SAYS: It all hinges on the games in Boston. Portland has a pitcher's park and the higher-seeded Beavers will host the majority of contests this season. The Beaver Cleavers lost one game at home in the playoffs and during the LCS, Philadelphia could only muster six runs in three games at PGE Park. Boston scored over 100 more runs than the Beavers this season. And, they scored significantly more runs at Fenway than on the road this year. Both team were built very well and suited perfectly to their respective leagues. It will be a seven-game series and it will be Portland's to lose. EDGE: Portland in seven.

Season 4 Awards and Playoffs Preview

First, I hope everyone here had a happy holiday, regardless of which one you celebrate. Mine was okay. I got a couple of Wii games, some LL Bean clothes and some really yummy scotch (Johnny Walker Blue Label...if you have never experienced this, you've led a wasted life). Got boxed at Christmas dinner on some expensive British beer. All in all, a good day.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the post-season awards and offer up some predictions...

AL MVP: Call me crazy. but I think that designated hitters should be considered for the MVP as long as their offensive numbers are gaudy. While Eli Reynoso hit well, his run production was meh. There is one player that put it together at the plate and on the field. That's Sammy Carr. While he should win, I think Orber Nieto will win.

NL MVP: It comes down to the always reliable Al Mendoza against heavy hitting Greg Ramirez. The latter has big stats, but a sub-1.000 OPS. You expect a little more from a .300+, 40+ home run hitter. Mendoza is playing for a hot playoff team and has been the veteran lynchpin of the club. He takes home the hardware.

AL CY YOUNG: I am, however, not one to award a closer the Cy. I mean, unless we're talking 70 saves or a crop of mediocre starters, the closer just doesn't get the love from me. Take them out of the conversation and we have a winner -- Alvin O'Brien.

NL CY YOUNG: The best pitcher this year was Dustin Keagle. Great OAV, K/9 and WHIP numbers and 18 wins. But, the Cy Young has nothing to do with the best pitcher and everything to do with the voters. Octavio Martin goes home with the honor.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: In the past, I've ripped the rookies for being nothing more than in the way. Like freshmen in high school. Anyhow, two of them made it easy -- Wayne Hardy and Julian Santana.

* * *

Bold predictions for the post-season. If I remember correctly, it is 5-5-7-7. I can never remember, you know, since I have never built a playoff team. Sonsabitches. Anyhow...

In the American League:
Boston beats Arizona, 4-3
Cleveland beats Tampa Bay, 4-2
Cleveland beats Boston, 4-2

In the National League:
Philadelphia beats D.C., 4-0
Cinci beats Portland, 4-3
Philadelphia beats Cinci, 4-3

In the World Series, Philadelphia beats Cleveland, 4-2.

NL Preview THUNDER

My department chair said that you can make any mundane activity exciting by adding the word thunder to the beginning or end. I hate to give him credit for it, but he's right. Now, the AL preview.

HMM: Washington reeled in Mitch Meyers for three years and $34.6m during the off-season, making one of the biggest bargains of the draft a luxury item (Meyers went off demanding in the range of $5m per). As someone who has spent big money on a non-superstar arm in the past, I scratched my head over this one. With this much money on the table, one has to hope that Meyers earns his payday. But, I also think back to J.J. Lambert in S.2. Statistically speaking, Meyers is 26-25 for his career with a 4.55 ERA, 292 Ks, 1.38 WHIP and 398 IP. Is this piece enough to push them over the hump and into first place?

ON THE RIVERFRONT: Lon Costello, Brad Bird, Al Posada and Felipe Balboa are back to front the ever dangerous Cincinnati rotation. One big change for S.3 was the jettisoning of Doug Linton to the junior circuit and the acquision of 80+ rated Ken Giovanola from Portland. Paired with the lineup that constantly scores enough runs to win, it's hard not to expect repeat performance in S.3.

ROCKY MOUNTAIN HIGH: C-Springs' Rico Johnson was a good pitcher in S.1. In S.2, he evolved into a great one. He added seven wins, subtracted six losses and peeled a quarter of a run off his ERA. He and Pat Stein make a formidable duo upfront. At 32 years old, can Rico carry the Cricket Club to another 94-win campaign?

PREDICTABLE PREDICTIONS:

DIVISION CHAMPS: Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Colorado Springs
WILD CARD: Washington and Santa Fe
LCS CHAMPS: Cincinnati

AL Preview THUNDER

My department chair said that you can make any mundane activity exciting by adding the word thunder to the beginning or end. I hate to give him credit for it, but he's right. Now, the AL preview.

SHIFT OF POWER: braddavis, Midre Navarre and Benny Pujols have left the friendly confines of Kaufmann Stadium and Kansas City. ronzabill is in and with him a new focus on the future. Ugueth Neruda and McKay Hernandez are the 1-2 combo in the rotation and the offensive machine still churns with Henry Cust, Pat Saunders, et al. But, could this mean the end of KC's reign over the Wailing Onion? They are still the Vegas favorite at 5-1, but Cinci is very close at 7-2.

ALGONQUIN FOR 'THE GOOD LAND': (Only makes sense if you've seen the movie Wayne's World) Milwaukee went from AL North darling to third place in S.2. The loss of Len Heisermann certainly hurt, but something else was missing. tsteve might have fixed that problem with three important big trades. First, he picked up Doug Linton and his 80+ rating towards the end of last season, giving him an important innings eater. An off-season trade with Memphis added front-line starter Santos Bautista and lefty Vic Molina for a trio of prospects. Finally, he added low-cost closer Dante Kroon (33/38 in saves). Look for Andy Porter to be the offensive story of S. 3 in the Onion. Benny Pujols' Detroit landing notwithstanding, Milwaukee looks like it's poised to make a run.

THE BRAWL: Look for another beat-'em-up season in the East. Boston comes off an 83-win season, but the 20-game margin from top to bottom was one of the tightest divisions in the Onion. And, with each team spending money to get better, this division winner will likely be like last year's -- only a shade over .500.

IN THE DIRTY SOUTH: Richmond's wood shop bridge collapse, combined with timely Nashville wins, put the Saints in an unreachable division-leading position. Look for Nashville to rein over the South again as Memphis begins a slow rebuild and Monterrey regains its bearings.

PREDICTIVE PREDICTIONS:

Division winners: Milwaukee, Boston, Nashville and KC.
Wild Card: Seattle, Cleveland
LCS Champ: I'm at a toss-up between Milwaukee and KC. Check back with me later.

Playoff Previewtacular: Cincinnati cs. Santa Fe

The last of the LCS previews.

Batting: The contrast is evident. Santa Fe broke the 1,000-run plateau in S.2, led by Aurelio Valentin (.347-46-158) and three batters with 1.000+ OPS. Cinci? They have great hitters, in Pablo Johnson (.309-36-149) and Al Ward (.302-22-72) but they scored less runs and have an OPS that runs 50 points lower than the competition. EDGE: Santa Fe

Pitching: The contrast is evident. No slight on Vern Dunwoody, paulbliss612 or the Santa Fe hurlers, but they couldn't hold a candle to Cincinnati. Four pitchers at 17+ wins and a team ERA more than one runs less than the Fe do it for me. EDGE: Cincinnati

Prediction: Pitching wins championships. Cincinnati in five.

Playoff Previewtacular: Arizona vs. Nashville

Another in a line of incoherent playoff previews:

Batting: Nashville sticks out because they got close to scoring 1,000 runs (997). They have four 30+ home run hitters and six regulars bat over .300. Arizona's offense is no slouch by any means -- 935 runs scored, 270 home runs and a team .282 batting average. They have six hitters batting .290+ and three 40+ home run hitters. If baseball is a game of streaks, the hot bat is going to own this series. EDGE: Push.

Pitching: It's odd. Nashville got better once they dumped J.J. Lambert. Anyhow, these teams are about even across the board with a couple of exceptions. Nashville strikes out more batters (led by Floyd Brock's 212 Ks) and Arizona's propensity to give up hits (more than 70 more than Nashville, which gives them a .270 OAV). EDGE: Nashville by a hair.

Prediction: I wouldn't bet my subprime mortgage on it, but Nashville in 6.

Playoff Previewtacular: Colorado Springs vs. Atlanta

Another in my in-depth, insane playoff previews.

Batting: It's tough to ignore the offense that scores 100 more runs. But, then again, Atlanta did take almost 200 more at-bats than C-Springs. The Mad Dogs lean on Roger Winston, who hit .291-42-127 and Oswaldo Furcal's 1.009 OPS. The Cricket Club looks to a pair of 100-RBI guys in James Gao and David Belliard. You know, with the same number of at-bats, these teams would probably be even (or damn close). EDGE: PUSH. But, Gao is a stud.

Pitching: The pitching is pretty close too. C-Springs gave up less hits and runs and walked less batters, but Atlanta tallied more strikeouts and won more games. The Cricket Club sends Rico Johnson to start game one. At 23-5, 2.78 and 182 Ks, Johnson is one of the best in the game. Pat Stein is a competent number two and Gregory Rando is a solid closer. Atlanta has four starters with double digit wins and half as many with double-digit losses. 18-game winner Eric Cummings (3.92 ERA and 187Ks), Magglio Rodriguez (212 Ks) and closer Jose Bonilla (44 saves) highlight the roster. EDGE: Colorado Springs, but not by much.

Prediction: Seven games for sure. I think Colorado Springs has the edge, if Rico Johnson pitches twice.

Playoff Previewtacular: Boston vs. Kansas City

The first in a semi-periodic update of the playoff field and my take on how things will play out.

Offense: The Minutemen struck out more times (970) than they scored (900), so things don't particularly bode well. Russell Bowie 30 homers and 106 RBI are an imposing presence in the lineup as are hit machines Darryl Coles (193 hits and 71 SB) and Hector Pettitte (184 hits). Kansas City trots out the a murderer's row -- Pat Saunders, Al Mendoza, Henry Cust, Philip Jacobs, Darrin Cooper, Hunter Pierre...six Monarch hitters drove in 100+ runs. EDGE: Uhhh, KC?

Pitching: Bahstun is lead into battle by the 1-2 of Groucho Hunter and Rob Thomson. The pair combined for 28 wins and a 4.01 ERA. Both are effective, but not intimidating. Speaking of intimidating, Kansas City will start a duo of 23-game winners in Bennie Pujols and Midre Navarre. And the others ones aren't too bad either. EDGE: Kansas City.

Prediction: Kansas City in 5. Boston's pretty pesky.

Picks of Integrity

With opening day in our PM2 cycle on Friday (a short seven hours away), the OnionBall offers its picks of integrity for the upcoming season:

NL Division Champs: Cincinnati, Phila, Colorado Springs, Atlanta
NL Wild Cards: Santa Fe, Austin

NL Champs: Cincinnati


AL Division Champs: Cleveland, Boston, Memphis, KC
AL Wild Cards: Seattle, Milwaukee

AL Champs: Kansas City

World Series: Kansas City, 4-2

The Known Unknowns and the Unknown Knowns

My team-by-team preview of each division in (my) predicted order of finish. And yes, I picked myself to win my division.

AL North
Cleveland
What we know: A scary lineup packed with offense from leadoff to number nine. Donovan Milligan, Jason Carlyle, Nerio...they all scare me. And they've infused the pitching staff with a much needed starter in Pat Rizzo.

What we don't know: I'm convinced that, while Nerio Turner is a good power hitter, that last year might have been an anomaly. Can he keep the greenies down and the numbers up? But, are Barnes-Flanagan-Rizzo-Lovullo and Lee enough to topple Kansas City?

Milwaukee
What we know: To channel my inner Rick Pitino, Len Heiserman is not walking through that door. Mikey Hall is back and so is Yoo-Nah Kim. Their pitching scares me more than Cleveland's hitting.

What we don't know: Andy Porter, Wayne Jones, Earl Clontz, Felipe Hernandez...all absolutely raking in spring training. Can they make it happen in the regular season?

Detroit
What we know:  Chui Tabaka is going to steal a lot of bases. Gio Coffie is going to do the lion's share of producing runs. And, so far, Mel Petersn and Troy Shumaker are thawing nicely.

What we don't know: Stud catcher Eli Reynoso looks to make his everyday debut in season two. Is he up to it and can he set the table for Coffie and Warren Rueter? 

Minnesota
What we know: Took a big step by signing Stone Cold Steve Austin to a nice little deal. Certainly amounting a nice offense.

What we also know: Del Holtz looks great and so does Henry Ramirez. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the red of the staff.

AL East
Boston
What we know: The champions of the weakest division in the AL won last season by a 12-game margin. The starting pitching looks tuned, as does Jim Rice.

What we don't know: Is the rest of the machine ready to win? And, can they do it more than last year's 84 times??

Augusta
What we know: Jamie Rollins. Nuff said.

What we don't know: There pitching looks quite nice. Can they keep it together and make it down the stretch without picking up another arm?

New York
What we know: This team will not lack for runs. And from first glance, they have a lot of young guns that will power them through the season.

What we don't know: Are there enough proven veterans to make this season work? Or will season three be the year for the Chechakos? I have flip flopped twice New York and Augusta.

Pittsburgh
What we know: It can't get worse than last season. Besides, they have a player named Hulk Holt.

What we don't know: How much better it will get in season three. Are we talking 50 wins better or 70 wins better?

AL South
Memphis
What we know: Yeah, because I'm going to pick against myself. My pitching is good from the first through the sixth innings and great in the ninth. The lineup is good 1-6.

What we don't know: The seventh and eighth innings have me a little unsure. My infield holes have spackle. They need some drywall. Will we collapse like balsa wood again and go on another 13-14 game losing streak?

Nashville
What we know: I love picking on Nashville. Their my divisional rival, of course I'm going to dump on them. But, with 113 runs scored and a team batting average of .301, they are pounding the ball in spring training. And, the starters look midseason.

What we don't know: Is this a Dave Winfield "Mr. May" situation? Or can the Saints capitalize on mistakes and repeat in the South? This is another gone that could go either way.

Richmond
What we know: This team will not lack for offense. The problem is that the other team probably won't either.

What we don't know: Can the pitchers keep up with the hitters or will it become the game of who scores more runs?

Monty
Given that reigny had some bigger fish to fry and lost out on free agency, I'm going to cut him some slack. We'll bag on him later this season when he's back.

AL West
Kansas City
What we know: The day that the Yankees call to offer me the general manager job, I'm going to bring braddavis in to build the organization. 114 wins and a completely ripped pitching staff, plus they reloaded the offense. They scare me.

What we don't know: Am I just full of shit and pumping the Monarchs up?

Seattle
What we know: Louis Paul is a stud and leads a pitching staff that will set the pace for this team. The Len Heiserman signing is worth the four-game gap from last seaon.

What we don't know: Will the lineup gel around Heiserman, or leave him with no one to drive in?

Colorado
What we know: They bring back a hit machine lead by Edwin Underwood and Tanner Howard.

What else we know: They only have 10 pitchers in camp and only one has an ERA under 4.00.

Arizona
What we know: ohiopirate inherited an 88-loss club with good pitching.

What we also know: ohiopirate inherited an 88-loss club that hits like my grandmother (and both of them are dead).

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