Sunday, January 4, 2009

The Rumor Mill Churns

What we're hearing from around the league:

• Memphis will say goodbye to Billy Anderson in the off-season. The Gold Glove first baseman tops almost every offensive team record list, but stands in the way of the team's decision to go young.

• The Memphis In The Meantime wants to take its payroll budget down to the $55-58m range in S.5.

• The Kansas City era ended when ronzabill moved Benny Pujols and Al Mendoza prior to the season. Don't be surprised if Ugueth Neruda is traded in the offseason. The Royals are looking to rebuild its organization and Neruda might be able to bring the prospects it will take.

• KC is also in the market for a leadoff hitter.

• Contract negotiations between the Philadelphia Flash and Louie Dali have collapsed. Dali wants No. 1 starter and No. 1 respect. Flash management did not appreciate the ultimatum as it weighs an Oprah-sized deal for Willie Rodriguez.

Donovan Milligan's agent says that his client is demanding "one of those M&M's mixers. He saw it at the M&M's store in Times Square and he really wants one either at his house or in the locker room."

• League sources report that Philadelphia is interested in Augusta farmhand Ernest Jackson.

• D.C. is looking to move players like GM is trying to unload cars. The only difference is that the Nationals might have something worth buying. Gene Collins and Mitch Meyers are on the block in their respective walk years. Les Carroll and Lawrence Fuller are due for salary arbitration and join Manuel Valdes and Jaime Rose on the available list. Most surprisingly is Johnnie Costello who has been dangled in a couple of trade discussions, but a league source says that the conversation for Costello starts with two A-level prospects.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Makin' It Rain: A Free Agency Preview

If you are confused on the definition of making it rain, I highly encourage you to read this article from Deadspin. Hell, even if you do know what it means, go read it. It's pretty funny.

For those of us not in the playoffs, the past couple of weeks have been about strategy for season five. One piece of that puzzle is free agency and the crop this year will demand some big money. You might even say that some owners will make it rain.

Let's take a look at the free agent class of Season Five.

Donovan Milligan is the big name. He hit .290 with 49 homers and 148 RBI for Cleveland. The 30 year old shortstop is going to be Oprah Rich this year as he looks to increase his income from $10.5m.

Augusta's Jamie Rollins has dropped 15 overall ratings points on my board since he signed for $17m in season one. Offensively, he's still pretty offensive, but not nearly as dominant. His home runs have dropped off by more than 50 percent and his OPS is off by more than 300 points. He won't get the same money as before, but he has potential to be a strong, overpaid DH.

Ramon Martin is one of three 100+ RBI guys on the market. He jacked 44 home runs with a .289 BA last season in Santa Fe. At 34, he might not have the defensive skills you'd look for from a third baseman, but he would make a more than adequate corner outfielder, first baseman or DH. Of course, prepare to pay up, as he'll be looking to build on his $2.7m salary.

Philip Jacobs presents a challenge to Cleveland management. Milligan is sure to hit the market looking for that Oprah Money. Do they resign Jacobs? He's a 32-year-old third baseman who hit .307-28-101 last season. He'll certainly make more than his current $9.0m salary. The question is whether he'll settle for a hometown discount.

Dorian Piper could be the sleeper in all of this. The Monterrey first baseman hit .340 with a .925 OPS in 347 at-bats last season. He's 29 years old, has gold glove potential, but lacks that typical power one expects from a corner infielder. He made $6.8m last year.

Willie Rodriguez heads the class. He comes off a spectacular year -- 16-8, 2.88 ERA and 182 strikeouts. The question remains as to whether Philadelphia will let him go or lock him up long term. He's 32 years old and makes $13.5m.

Louie Dali will demand big money coming off a season where he won 17 games and ate 218 innings. The 30-year-old got $6m from Philadelphia last year.

Raymond North is also going to ask for some big money. Monterrey's 29-year-old starter was 11-8 with a 4.01 ERA. Get him some run support and he might be real deal.

35-year-old Sammy Barnes is looking at his last deal. The Cleveland hurler was 15-6 with a 3.30 in his contract year. He was still fairly dominant, holding opposing hitters to a .228 OAV and 1.25 WHIP. He's got a couple of quality years left, but might have to take a discount from his $8.3m salary.

Ruben Otanez hits the market after a strong year in Washington. The former Detroit hurler was 9-2 with a 2.72 ERA. At 33 years old, he'll look for a three- to four-year deal with similar money ($7.8m) to closeout a stellar career.

McKay Hernandez will hope you remember his reputation as a member of KC's dynasty. He went 2-2 with a 5.75 ERA in a year which he spent time at AAA. He'll be a gamble at age 33 and an asking price north of $4.5m per year.

Willie Haynes is 34 years old and is coming off one of his best major league seasons with Cleveland. The southpaw was 12-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Haynes will look double or triple his money, coming off a contract that paid him $630K per.

Roscoe Street looks to build on a decent season in Santa Fe. Street was 7-7 with a 3.62 ERA. He's 27 years old and coming off a $2.7m contract. Someone is going to make some money.

Friday, January 2, 2009

World Series Preview: Positional Analysis

Don't let me fool you. I did this tonight not out of a sense of duty but as an effort to distract myself from Syracuse University nearly blowing their basketball game against the University of South Florida. And don't get me started on the Sugar Bowl...damn Saban.

Anyhow, the Onion Ball staff put their thinking caps on and came up with a position by position breakdown of the both World Series teams:

CATCHER
Portland's Guy Olson was one of three Portland players to hit .300+ with more than 35 homers. Rookie Grant Gilbert is an up and comer with offensive potential and excellent pitch calling numbers. Boston's Luke Cox hit .305 in the regular season but has lower defensive numbers than his counterparts. EDGE: Portland

FIRST BASE
Portland's Al Mendoza is an an all-world, Hall of Fame player to crushed opponent pitching in his first National League season. Guillermo Rivera hit 22 homers in 83 games for Boston, mustering a .944 OPS. EDGE: Portland. Rivera is competent. Mendoza is the gold standard.

SECOND BASE
In an interesting management maneuver, the Beavers debuted rookie Wendell Clement in the playoffs. And, since rebedwell has made every right decision this season, it turned out well. with Clement hitting .385-3-5 in 26 playoff at-bats. Boston's Howard Lee made the most of his rookie season, hitting .281-34-100 with a .910 OPS. He was equally as impressive in the field, committing just two errors. EDGE: Boston. Age and experience beats youth and ambition.

THIRD BASE
Portland's hottest hand is Philip Thompson, who has 22 hits, nine homers and 16 RBI in 51 playoff at-bats. Translation: 1.442 OPS. Nice! Equally as hot is Greg Lankford. The Sox's leading hitter on the year, Lankford batted .339 with a .968 OPS during the regular season. The trend continued in the post-season -- .392-4-13 with a 1.269. EDGE: Push.

SHORTSTOP
Neither team places offensive emphasis on their shortstops. Boston goes with Bud Rollison and a .294 batting average in 398 at-bats. Portland's Carl McMurray hit .236 in 318 at-bats. EDGE: Push. Rollison's offense is offset by his 22 errors. McMurray's offense is washed out by his two errors.

OUTFIELD
Boston's Hector Pettite hit .329 and reached base at a .399 clip. His outfield mates Tony Trevino and Howie Durham were .250 hitters with less than spectacular extra-base hit numbers. Portland's Darren Thomas had an all-star season -- 302-40-86 with 23 steals. His colleagues in the outfield -- Ken Webster and Josias Veras -- each hit 20+ homers. Webster struck out 140 times. EDGE: Portland, by a hair, because chicks dig the long ball.

DESIGNATED HITTER
EDGE: Boston, as you would expect. It's easier to have a good DH when you plan for it in your everyday lineup. When in use, Jamie Yamamoto will do it for Boston. My guess is that catchers Olson and Gilbert plus Al Mendoza will fill the role here.

STARTING THREE
Boston: Willie Trajano-Groucho Hunter-Raymond Stone
Portland: Octavio Martin-Julian Santana-Preston Mays.

I have a sneaking suspicion that rebedwell is going to drop Larry Dickens (0-0, 4.50 in postseason) for Preston Mays (2-0, 0.00 ERA, 19 Ks in postseason). EDGE: Call me crazy. If he does that, Portland has the best staff. If he keeps Dickens, call it a push.

BULLPEN
Portland's Felipe Balboa has converted all six of his post-season save opportunities, but has a 4.63 ERA in the process. Danny Duran leads the Boston 'pen with a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. EDGE: Push. Both relief staffs are sharp.

THE BLOG SAYS: It all hinges on the games in Boston. Portland has a pitcher's park and the higher-seeded Beavers will host the majority of contests this season. The Beaver Cleavers lost one game at home in the playoffs and during the LCS, Philadelphia could only muster six runs in three games at PGE Park. Boston scored over 100 more runs than the Beavers this season. And, they scored significantly more runs at Fenway than on the road this year. Both team were built very well and suited perfectly to their respective leagues. It will be a seven-game series and it will be Portland's to lose. EDGE: Portland in seven.

World Series Preview

EDITOR'S NOTE: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I had Philly playing Cleveland. What the hell do I know?

The Beavers and the Minutemen battle for the fourth Wailing Onion World Series Title. For the first time in the history of the world, neither Kansas City nor Cincinnati will be represented. Instead we have:

vs.


Meet the contenders

Boston Minutemen
RF Hector Pettitte
SS Bud Rolison
3B Greg Lankford
DH Jamie Yamamoto
C Luke Cox
2B Howard Lee
1B Guillermo Rivera
LF Tony Trevino
CF Howie Durham
*Expect Trevino to sit and Yamamoto to play LF or RF during games in Portland

Portland Beavers
CF Darren Thomas
1B Al Mendoza
3B Philip Thompson
C Grant Gilbert
LF Josias Veras
2B Wendell Clement
RF Ken Webster
SS Carl McMurray
*Guy Olson, Grant Gilbert and Al Mendoza will likely split time at DH when games are played in Boston

BALLPARK NOTES
Fenway Park 2, 4, 0, 1, 0
PGE Park -4, -3, -3, -4, -4
(1B, 2B, 3B, HR LF, HR RF)

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Season 4 Awards and Playoffs Preview

First, I hope everyone here had a happy holiday, regardless of which one you celebrate. Mine was okay. I got a couple of Wii games, some LL Bean clothes and some really yummy scotch (Johnny Walker Blue Label...if you have never experienced this, you've led a wasted life). Got boxed at Christmas dinner on some expensive British beer. All in all, a good day.

With that in mind, let's take a look at the post-season awards and offer up some predictions...

AL MVP: Call me crazy. but I think that designated hitters should be considered for the MVP as long as their offensive numbers are gaudy. While Eli Reynoso hit well, his run production was meh. There is one player that put it together at the plate and on the field. That's Sammy Carr. While he should win, I think Orber Nieto will win.

NL MVP: It comes down to the always reliable Al Mendoza against heavy hitting Greg Ramirez. The latter has big stats, but a sub-1.000 OPS. You expect a little more from a .300+, 40+ home run hitter. Mendoza is playing for a hot playoff team and has been the veteran lynchpin of the club. He takes home the hardware.

AL CY YOUNG: I am, however, not one to award a closer the Cy. I mean, unless we're talking 70 saves or a crop of mediocre starters, the closer just doesn't get the love from me. Take them out of the conversation and we have a winner -- Alvin O'Brien.

NL CY YOUNG: The best pitcher this year was Dustin Keagle. Great OAV, K/9 and WHIP numbers and 18 wins. But, the Cy Young has nothing to do with the best pitcher and everything to do with the voters. Octavio Martin goes home with the honor.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: In the past, I've ripped the rookies for being nothing more than in the way. Like freshmen in high school. Anyhow, two of them made it easy -- Wayne Hardy and Julian Santana.

* * *

Bold predictions for the post-season. If I remember correctly, it is 5-5-7-7. I can never remember, you know, since I have never built a playoff team. Sonsabitches. Anyhow...

In the American League:
Boston beats Arizona, 4-3
Cleveland beats Tampa Bay, 4-2
Cleveland beats Boston, 4-2

In the National League:
Philadelphia beats D.C., 4-0
Cinci beats Portland, 4-3
Philadelphia beats Cinci, 4-3

In the World Series, Philadelphia beats Cleveland, 4-2.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Announcing The Ewads! Part II

First, I've gotten some shit (in the chat and on the forum) about choosing Merritt as the top starter. That's cool. Whatev. I copied six rows of stats on to a piece of paper and thought, who would be the most sought after pitcher if they were all on the market. I had Merritt marked at one and Al Posada as two. If he had run support and a decent bullpen, he'd probably have Posada numbers. No real methodology. Just a glass of Bailey's (or three) and the stats.

Anyhow, the second round of Ewads tonight.

THE KINGMAN AWARD: Given to player most resembling Dave Kingman's offensive prowess. Carlton Miller nudges Wayne Ramsey. Ramsey has more strikeouts, but I take Miller. He has one more home run and a batting average that is 42 points lower than Ramsey's. Plus, he has a dealbreaking .291 OBP.

THE AMERICAN HEART ASSOCIATION AWARD: Given to the closer who gives his manager reason to wear a portable EKG. Barry Hubbard takes this one easily. The eight blown saves aren't a league leader, but the 5.36 ERA among closers is.

THE TIM LEARY AWARD: Named after a mediocre pitcher who gave me headaches after going 9-19 in 1990. We're looking for the least effective starter here. Benji Santiago runs away here. 3-18 with a 8.09 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and .900+ OPS.

On to the important hardware...

LEAST VALUABLE PLAYER: Trey Daniels. A .564 OPS, a .249 BA. Then, add in four strikeouts per walk. Adding insult to injury, he has 0 home runs in 603 at-bats.

LEAST VALUABLE PITCHER: Santiago. I like piling it on.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Announcing The Ewads!

We here at the Onionball blog are bored. It's snowing like a motherfucker out (we live in Syracuse, N.Y. and received 13 inches of snow today...our office closed at 1 p.m.) and they haven't plowed in hours. So, with that in mind, we are going to crown our first-ever position-by-position player of the year awards — the ewads.

For those of you here in season one, you will remember our friend ewad. For our newer friends, let me just say that ewad was the textbook delinquent owner. At one point, he had one healthy starting pitcher -- Julian Nunez -- who threw more than 4,077 pitches.

So, yes, the award is tongue in cheek.

Anyhow, on to the ewads...

CATCHER: The ewad goes to James Gao. Batting .323 with a .938 OPS, including 30 home runs and 113 RBI. Threw out 61 basestealers. Has 44 doubles and has walked (66) more than he has struck out (61). Also nominated: Duke Harper/BUR, Tyrone Thomas/LR and Mark Yamamoto/MIL.

FIRST BASE: The ewad goes Al Mendoza. Hit .321/1.092 with 36 homers and 94 RBI. Walked nearly twice as many times as striking out (80 to 46). A stud. Also nominated: Greg Ramirez/WAS, Wayne Ramsey/CHI.

SECOND BASE: None. No one stood out to earn an award bearing the name of ewad. Nominated: Henry Cust/CHA, David Park/MIL.

THIRD BASE: Greg Lankford. Came over from Washington to hit .334 with 17 and 73. Almost even K:BB numbers. OPS of .955. Nominated: Philip Jacobs/CLE, Hunter Pierre/KC, Ramon Martin/SFE.

SHORTSTOP: Donovan Milligan. This was a toughy. Only hitting .292 with a .931 OPS, but 47 homers and 141 RBI push him over. Had the best defensive numbers of any of the better offensive shortstops. Nominated: Harpo Dunn/SF, Dennis Howell, SF, Gil Matthews/NY.

OUTFIELD: Ralph Ferguson. Had a nice season. Batting .327 with a .883 OPS, 17 homers and 82 RBI. Mixed in 53 steals with a .987 fielding percentage.

OUTFIELD: Orber Nieto. Hard to ignore his OPS (1.027). 44 homers and 119 RBI along with 43 steas put him on the radar.

OUTFIELD: Stubby Simon. Batting .294 with a .901 OPS. Has 35 homers, 115 RBI and 43 steals. Also, a nifty .994 fielding percentage.

Nominated: Nerio Turner/CLE, Andy Porter/MIL, Sammy Carr/LR, Hector Pettitte/BOS.

STARTING PITCHER: Kyle Merritt. Thank God he's in the NL. 13-8 this year with a 2.73 ERA, 216 Ks and a .216 opponent BA.

CLOSER: Tony Dodd. 52 appearances, 48 save opps, 46 saves. Edges Del Holtz/CLE and his perfect record in 42 save opps.

OnIoNDEX: Number Three

Whoops. Meant to do this a little more often this season. Anyhow, just 12 games to go and here's your power rating. Playoff teams are bolded. Teams in pennant or wild card chases are italicized.

Philadelphia Flash 0.667398496
Arizona Amberwoods 0.660097087
Tampa Bay Hurricanes 0.633690647
Cleveland Wahoos 0.633240157
Milwaukee Malt Liquors 0.613748428
Atlanta Mad Dogs 0.612877863
Boston Minutemen 0.600439655
Portland Beavers 0.600364807
Cincinnati Motorboaters 0.598584906
Washington D.C. Senators 0.566651515
Austin City Limit 0.545921053
Buffalo Hot Wings 0.52878
Charlotte Webs 0.528242424
Little Rock Voodoo Cats 0.527352
Colorado Springs Cricket Club 0.5271875
Kansas City Royals 0.520359375
Minnesota North Stars 0.509769231
Anaheim Asylum 0.501292683
Santa Fe Booze Hounds 0.500574257
New York Chechakos 0.468276596
Augusta Black Bears 0.460153226
Burlington Pitch Factory 0.42821875
Columbus Come from Behinders 0.413647482
Memphis In The Meantime 0.387374408
San Juan Epsteins 0.387020492
Seattle Steelheads 0.386846154
Chicago Cubbies, of course 0.373371951
Detroit Great Lake St 0.372971963
Pittsburgh Diamond Kings 0.372865385
Monterrey Surf Riders 0.372851133
San Francisco Slingers 0.367746988
Los Angeles Stars 0.347554054